Behavioral psych software automatically can build a psychological profile based upon a subject's data. A skilled psychosurgeon/AI programmer can graft that profile on an AI framework, creating an AI that, while definitively non-conscious, acts in ways consistent with the original. Such an AI can be used to predict the actions and decisions of important figures.
An arms race has developed between the major polities, developing predictive profiles for their most important opposition. The autonomists are at a disadvantage; in a sousveillance society, useful subject data is easy to come by, whereas the important figures of the Planetary Consortium and Jovian Republic generally appear only in scripted appearances, which are much less useful for creating profiles.
If you have computer power to spare, genetic algorithms can bring your profiles to another level. Generate as many profiles as is practical, slightly randomize them, and recombine them based on their ability to predict the behavior of their subject. Given enough time, such a profile might approach ego status, qualifying as a fork or AGI.
Plot Hook: A predictive profile of one of the Titanian Commonwealth's social democrat party's president, created by an Extropian psychological warfare service on the behalf of the Planetary Consortium, has become so well refined and fleshed-out it qualifies as a high-level delta fork. Then the fork was leaked, or possibly escaped. A major diplomatic incident, possibly even the re-ignition of war between the inner and outer system is possible, and the fork has turned to the players for help.